Traders brace for bitcoin price volatility as US dollar gains close to 20%
This week, the dollar continues to be the protagonist, as the monthly close and the expiry of options loom over Bitcoin. The volatility of Bitcoin (BTC) rose during September 26 as the opening of Wall Street avoided significant losses.
The monthly closing aims to shake the price of BTC
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed the BTC/USD pair hovering around $19,000 on the day, with 1.5%-2% hourly candles not uncommon. The pair was expected to break out of its tight trading range in the short term, having consolidated since September 22nd. For Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, a touch of the upper range zone should signal a continuation to the upside.
“Theory still holds true for Bitcoin,” he told his Twitter followers that day. “The crucial $18,600 zone holds as support, which we have been testing on multiple occasions. Another test of the $19,400-$19,500 zone (which we will do soon) is most likely to break to the upside. My target is the USD 20,000 and the USD 22,500″.
On-chain analytics resource Material Indicators agreed that volatility is making a comeback.
“BTC is trading in a tight range. Volatility will increase as the week progresses towards the monthly close, which coincides with the expiration of monthly and quarterly options,” he wrote in a Twitter thread about the current state of the market. “If the bulls can make a green monthly close above $20,000, technical resistance is at the key MAs.”
With an eye to a longer-term range, meanwhile, trader and analyst Josh Rager suggested that an optimistic scenario could see the BTC/USD pair echo its growth from the first half of 2019. “I’m not sure Bitcoin has bottomed out, but if BTC price starts to rise to $24,000 or higher, I’ll be watching,” he tweeted. “I’m not saying history repeats itself, but April 19 took most people by surprise.” Rager acknowledged that the macroeconomic environment this year was “different” from 2019.
The strength of the dollar sees the best year in its history
On the macro front, US equities stabilized at the open on Wall Street on September 26, helping highly correlated cryptocurrencies avoid downside volatility. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index were down 0.35% and 0.65% on the day, respectively.
However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) looked poised to attack its latest 20-year highs, having pulled back only slightly after hitting 114.52, its highest since May of that year. The year 2022 has been the best for DXY, which is up more than 18% since January 1.
“The 52-week percentage change (lower bound) is +21.3%, the highest change rate since Q2 2015,” Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, said in part of a tweet on the day. . “The trend will stabilize and RoC will normalize, but that doesn’t require a decline in $DXY.”
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