Analyst on BTC Bottom at $17,600: Bitcoin “Not There Yet”
It may be a case of “so close but so far” when it comes to June’s multi-year low being the next BTC price floor, Willy Woo warns. aligned” with previous bear market lows, argues one of the leading cryptocurrency analysts.
In a Twitter thread on Sept. 14, statistician Willy Woo, creator of the Woobull data resource, offered three examples of why the BTC/USD pair should drop even further. Despite many announcing a new price macro bottom during the June trip to $17,600, not everyone is confident that Bitcoin will avoid a retest.
For Woo, there is still reason to believe that the lower levels will mark the new price floor – and this could be anywhere, even below $10,000.
“Underwater” offer a short distance from the bottom zone
One of the metrics Woo highlights is the percentage of the global BTC supply that remains at a loss – it is now worth more than the price it last moved at. In previous bear markets, price lows coincided with more than 60% of coins losing.
“In terms of maximum pain, the market hasn’t felt the same pain as previous bottoms,” he warned alongside a chart from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. According to that chart, 52% of the supply is currently at a loss, and to reach the 60% mark, the BTC/USD pair would have to drop to just $9,600.
Woo added that in the pit of previous Bitcoin bear markets, the losing supply “cleanly” pierced a long-term trend line, something that has also not happened this time.
Cost base approaches target zone
Another telltale sign that the Bitcoin market is bottoming lies in the composition of its investor base: long-term (LTH) and short-term (STH) holders. Typically, deep down, STHs have a lower cost base than LTHs. This means that STHs paid less for their coins than LTHs, the latter defined as those who have held BTC for 155 days or more.
“We’re close, but we’re not quite there yet. There’s some time left to get there, in my opinion,” Woo said.
Previously, David Puell, creator of the Puell Multiple indicator, pointed to cost base differences as an “interesting” factor for analysts to consider.
Accumulation is not “synonymous” with history
Ultimately, hodlers big and small still have more to accumulate, Woo concludes. Alongside a Glassnode chart of bear market accumulation trends, he noted that in 2022, BTC has not been flowing from sellers to “urgent” buyers at a rate comparable to before.
“Until now we haven’t had accumulation levels comparable to previous funds,” he explained.
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